Note from Danny: This is William’s second guest post here in two weeks. I asked him to write this second post after a phone conversation in which he shared with me some insights about where things might be going *really soon*, and what business owners and entrepreneurs (like you!) might need to do about it. I strongly recommend that you take the time to read this post, subscribe to his free email course and quarterly updates.
What 2013 Recession?
Who said there’s going to be one?
Several people, all at pay grades higher than ours, that’s who!
USA Today recently ran an article telling us the fragile economic recovery is showing cracks. It’s like an Olympic one mile runner running out of gas just as the last lap bell sounds – just when he should be kicking it in high gear.
But wait, you might say, didn’t we just come out of a big recession? Aren’t we supposed to have at least a few good years before the next economic depression? Yes. And yes. But it might be happening anyway.
You might not think this matters to you as a marketing entrepreneur, but boy does it ever…
Scare tactics? Not really…
Is this just one of those general scare tactics bogeyman things? No, but judge for yourself.
Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy is weak.
That’s not all. Commercial real estate lending, after a nice recovery, is falling back.
And if that’s not enough, Americais experiencing an unusually severe drought.
The three next largest economies in the world ,Japan, Europe and China, are all undergoing economic difficulties. As our largest trading partners, there’s a spillover effect that affects America.
If you’re still not convinced, here’s a Bloomberg video from a respected economist saying we’re already in recession. (Warning: it’s long, 12 minutes).
All is not gloomy, economic depression though. There are several indicators that show the economy is still recovering. That means it’s not a sure thing the economy is going to tank in the next few months.
This is like a weatherman saying there’s a hurricane coming your way. It may miss you but it may not. What are you going to do? Sit back and say the weatherman has been wrong before? Or prepare?
If you’re like me, you’ll do both. we can argue all we want. The smart thing is get prepared and quickly. Even if the talking heads are wrong, there is absolutely no harm in getting some basic preparation out of the way.
Take Action Now
My previous post here on Mirasee outlined the basic strategy for entrepreneurs and marketers in the online arena. If a recession hits us in the next year, here is what you can do to prepare:
1. Look at your offerings. Is there a new way to package or position your content to create a product that will be of compelling value to your subscribers when they get hit by a recession? If you had in mind to sell high priced coaching, you might want to speed that up so you can signups (and payments) before the recession hits. It may not, let’s be clear, about it, but you have to factor the growing possibility into your plans.
2. Prepare alternative positioning strategies. You have some time to think of the positioning of your blog, website or other faces of your enterprise to suit changing times. It might be a good time to engage with your audience and ask how they would react if what the experts are fearing comes true and they were to be faced with an unexpected recession. First rule of content marketing: listen to your audience. Without spreading alarm or creating a negative vibe, you might just want to see if there’s a way you van get some advance heads-up from the source of your livelihood.
3. Prepare alternate offers. Looking at your editorial calendar, you might want to create some options. Think of it as A/B testing for content: if the economy is good, we go with A, but if there’s bad news, we have B in our back pocket and we’ll run with that.
4. Sell, don’t buy. If someone approaches you to buy your website, it might be smart to resist the temptation to hold out for more. Nothing wrong with that, of course, but if your plans were to wait only another year or two to sell, well, that might not be an available option. If a recession comes, all business prices fall. On the other hand, if you have your eye on a competitor or complementary website, it might pay you to wait a year or two.
5. Get out of debt. Whatever else you do, get out of debt as much as you can. If you have to eat rice and beans to pay down debt, then eat rice and beans. Better now (when you have a choice) than later, when you have no choice. If business slows, you can cut expenses, but you can’t cut debt payments. Better to get rid of those as soon as possible.
If you have any assets you were planning to liquidate, now might be as good a time as you’ll get for the next 3-5 years if the recession comes. If you can hold out that long, no need to change any plans.
Be Ahead of the Crowd
Nobody knows for sure the economy will tank next year, so of course, this is speculative. The people who are spreading doom may be eating crow this time next year as the economy surprises them with its resilience. I have faith in the cycle, simply because it has moved to its own beat for many decades, regardless of who said what and even which man or party was in power. That means I’m not totally sold that we will have a recession so soon. The economic cycle is bigger than any individual or group, but that’s just my personal view.
However, even though I feel more positive about the economy than most, I am taking the warning seriously and passing on the hurricane warning. Forewarned is forearmed. There is no harm getting prepared. I am.
Get Prepared – Now!
This affects your business, and it might affect you personally. It pays to stay on top of the economy, and I’d like to help you do it (for free).
Which is why I’ve got a short email course that I’d like to share with you. In 6 easy lessons…
- You’ll understand how the economy works
- You’ll also understand the four distinct phases of each individual cycle
- Most important, you’ll know what to do, and not do, in each phase
- And you’ll get a free quarterly update, showing you where the economy is today, in plain English, so you don’t have to wonder where to get that information.
It’s completely FREE (I don’t have anything to sell you, no matter how much you might want to buy), and all you have to do is sign up right here.